Study Cambridge-led study of 2m people globally is most comprehensive evidence yet of red meat link to diabetes (Aug 2024) Meat consumption and incident type 2 diabetes: an individual-participant federated meta-analysis of 1·97 million adults with 100 000 incident cases from 31 cohorts in 20 countries

Michael Harrop

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Eating processed or red meat increases the risk of type 2 diabetes, with just two slices of ham a day raising the danger by 15%, the largest study of its kind suggests.

Consuming 100g of unprocessed red meat a day – the equivalent of a small steak – was associated with a 10% higher risk of the disease.

Habitual consumption of 100g of poultry a day was associated with an 8% higher risk.

When further analyses were conducted to test the findings under different scenarios the association for poultry consumption became weaker but the associations with type 2 diabetes for processed meat and unprocessed red meat persisted

Experts not involved with the research said that while it proved only an association, and not causation, the results aligned with current healthy eating recommendations.

Summary​

Background​

Meat consumption could increase the risk of type 2 diabetes. However, evidence is largely based on studies of European and North American populations, with heterogeneous analysis strategies and a greater focus on red meat than on poultry. We aimed to investigate the associations of unprocessed red meat, processed meat, and poultry consumption with type 2 diabetes using data from worldwide cohorts and harmonised analytical approaches.

Methods​

This individual-participant federated meta-analysis involved data from 31 cohorts participating in the InterConnect project. Cohorts were from the region of the Americas (n=12) and the Eastern Mediterranean (n=2), European (n=9), South-East Asia (n=1), and Western Pacific (n=7) regions. Access to individual-participant data was provided by each cohort; participants were eligible for inclusion if they were aged 18 years or older and had available data on dietary consumption and incident type 2 diabetes and were excluded if they had a diagnosis of any type of diabetes at baseline or missing data. Cohort-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were estimated for each meat type, adjusted for potential confounders (including BMI), and pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis, with meta-regression to investigate potential sources of heterogeneity.

Findings​

Among 1 966 444 adults eligible for participation, 107 271 incident cases of type 2 diabetes were identified during a median follow-up of 10 (IQR 7–15) years. Median meat consumption across cohorts was 0–110 g/day for unprocessed red meat, 0–49 g/day for processed meat, and 0–72 g/day for poultry. Greater consumption of each of the three types of meat was associated with increased incidence of type 2 diabetes, with HRs of 1·10 (95% CI 1·06–1·15) per 100 g/day of unprocessed red meat (I2=61%), 1·15 (1·11–1·20) per 50 g/day of processed meat (I2=59%), and 1·08 (1·02–1·14) per 100 g/day of poultry (I2=68%). Positive associations between meat consumption and type 2 diabetes were observed in North America and in the European and Western Pacific regions; the CIs were wide in other regions. We found no evidence that the heterogeneity was explained by age, sex, or BMI. The findings for poultry consumption were weaker under alternative modelling assumptions. Replacing processed meat with unprocessed red meat or poultry was associated with a lower incidence of type 2 diabetes.

Interpretation​

The consumption of meat, particularly processed meat and unprocessed red meat, is a risk factor for developing type 2 diabetes across populations. These findings highlight the importance of reducing meat consumption for public health and should inform dietary guidelines.

Funding​

The EU, the Medical Research Council, and the National Institute of Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre.
 
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